BRF-09·
Taiwan Blockade and Invasion: The Case for an Enforced Freedom of Navigation Treaty
Why a blockade or quarantine is the more likely form of coercion against Taiwan, and the case for an enforced Freedom of Navigation Treaty as the missing deterrent.
Taiwan Blockade and Invasion argues that the most likely form of coercion against Taiwan is not an amphibious assault but a blockade or quarantine that squeezes the island economically while remaining calibrated to stay below the threshold of open war. The paper contends that existing legal and diplomatic instruments are poorly suited to answering that form of pressure, and proposes an enforced Freedom of Navigation Treaty as the missing deterrent.
The analysis works through the mechanics of a blockade scenario: the maritime and air approaches that matter most, the role of coast guard and maritime-militia vessels in preserving deniability, and the cascading effects on shipping insurance, energy imports, and the undersea cables that carry Taiwan’s data. It shows how a sustained quarantine can achieve strategic effect without a single conventional engagement.
Against that backdrop the paper develops the treaty proposal: a multilateral commitment, backed by pre-agreed enforcement mechanisms and shared escorting obligations, that converts ambiguous grey-zone interference with commercial navigation into a clear and collectively answered violation. The intent is to remove the calculated ambiguity on which a blockade strategy depends.
It closes by examining the practical obstacles — alliance politics, escalation management, and the need for credible peacetime rehearsal — and argues that establishing the framework before a crisis is far cheaper than improvising a response during one. The paper is published in full text on ResearchGate.